please post any subsequent updates here unless they’re huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don’t have to be their own thread
The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, has just put out a statement on Telegram announcing that “a counter-terrorist operation regime has been declared in Moscow” and that Monday will be a “non-working day” to “minimise risks”.
Imagine if St. Petersburg and maybe Moscow were part of a new democratic nation that eventually joins the EU or at least opens up borders and trade with EU like Norway and Switzerland for an example. I’d probably visit Petersburg at least.
It’s honestly a beautiful city and us Estonians used to have cruises to Petersburg much like there are cruises to Stockholm. I never went because I don’t speak Russian and I’ve been uneasy about visiting the country under its’ current regime, but if things change for the better, I’m tempted to go.
graphic showing the progress of Prigozhin’s rebellion. Little bright spots mark district centers where evidence of fighting has been observed, and big bright spots mark cities where explosions have been heard. Regions where Wagner column has been spotted marked in purple
tl;dr: A counter-terrorist operation has been launched in several Russian regions, as well as in Moscow as preparations are being made for the capital’s siege by the Wagner Group forces that rebelled against Russia’s top military command - Ukraine’s defense intelligence,
2021: “The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in the world.”
2022: “The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Ukraine.”
2023: “The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Russia.”
If Moscow stations start playing this, it’s a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we’d see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don’t think he’ll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we’ll have a pretty good idea who’s left standing.
This ones different because we don’t have a “smooth” transition of power to another government. This is the total collapse of Putin’s autocratic government which he set up over 20 years of ruling. We had randos on twitter talk about how Wagner forces were talking over nukes. During the soviet collapse, Russia’s military had complete control of it’s nuclear arsenal. We get front row seats to the collapse, an analogy would be the train wreak in East Palestine whereas the World is the town and the train is Russia.
Prigozhin says his aim is “not a military coup but a march for justice” and it comes after a long-running war of words with Russia’s military chiefs escalated dramatically.
It’s down to branding. Prigozhin is framing this as a fight against the military leaders who have deceived Putin and caused him to make mistakes, but he does not blame Putin himself and is leaving room for Putin to change sides.
That framing aside, this is still a coup with the goal of overthrowing gov’t leadership by force.
“This is not a coup” is roughly akin to “I’m not a Nazi” … you’ve brought up something outside daily norms to such an extent that you’re engaging in framing.
It doesn’t even really matter what Prigozhin intended at this point. Putin has made it clear he’s treating this as a coup attempt, so Prigozhin has to either pull off a successful coup or die.
It’s all word play, total information control and fog of war; by not attacking Putin directly, they avoid upsetting the Russians that still have total confidence in Putin and maintain that possibility that Wagner could still end up in alliance with Putin anyway, like with Chechens.
Attacking the military talking-heads however, doesn’t risk anything, most Russians don’t really trust the entire regime anyway, just Putin.
Once Wagner have more and more control of Russia, they can just go after Putin.
Also, if Prigozhin wins, Putin will probably end up being “killed by traitors”, but Prigozhin will vow to avenge him and bring all traitors to justice.
They’ve already taken Voronezh as well, some 500km from Moscow and have been reported to be advancing through the Lipetsk province, 350km south of Moscow.
Civil war broke out, some dude close to Putin offended Putin and Putin bombed his friend, friend didn’t like and started a coupe, civil joined in and thus making it a civil war. Putin friends is a military dude that still want to invade Ukraina after the civil war.
This is what my understanding is, someone please correct me.
We need a remind me bot. I’ve no clue other than Putin fled Moscow and they guy controlling a bunch of mercenaries is coming for him. I’ll look back at this post later to see what the consensus is and if they supply links.
“CNN has tracked Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Ukraine and Syria. Over the years they have developed a particularly gruesome reputation and have been linked to various human rights abuses.”
Considering that they needed Wagner to take over many areas in Ukraine and their military couldn’t do it, it’ll be a huge headache.
It also destroys Putin’s reputation of being in full charge. Think about the impact on the public, Putin has total informational control over Russia and this fucks him over.
Remember, they used to say that Wagner’s head would be cut off quickly if they ever “think” of going against Putin and there you go, it’s all BS.
I’m skeptical that this will affect his reputation, it’s just too easy to spin this for a propaganda-captive population so deep in the hole. But it would be great if it did.
The tactical impact seems more promising to me, but I’m also woefully uninformed so what do I know lol.
Hard to tell. What is abundantly clear is that they are meeting little to no resistance. Otherwise they would have never gotten this far. Whether troops really are joining them I can’t confirm. It’s all coming in very rapidly from sources I have no experience with.
I’m going to update my previous comment to add “allegedly.”
There have been a bunch of mixed reports, I think it’s tough to say exactly what’s true. I saw one person suggesting that given Wagner’s numbers in Africa it’s likely there’s really only half that number there. But there have also been reports of Russian military and intelligence personnel switched to support Wagner.
As someone else said, I think for most people it’s just a matter of wait and see what shakes out.
Interesting. So sounds like this could land anywhere from fizzling out to full-on coup, depending on still-unknown variables like the true state of Putin’s support within his own ranks.
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Russian losses in the war against Russia
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1672547501658845184/photo/1
Helicopters in Moscow
https://twitter.com/NationalIndNews/status/1672632554715766785?t=wWEyafU_CMP1ayb2hVX56w&s=33
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142
The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, has just put out a statement on Telegram announcing that “a counter-terrorist operation regime has been declared in Moscow” and that Monday will be a “non-working day” to “minimise risks”.
according to The Telegraph, Russia may end up disintegrating entirely over this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/24/russia-verge-collapse-elites-try-escape-wagner-coup/
Imagine if St. Petersburg and maybe Moscow were part of a new democratic nation that eventually joins the EU or at least opens up borders and trade with EU like Norway and Switzerland for an example. I’d probably visit Petersburg at least.
One can dream.
i’d honestly love to visit St. Petersburg if that happens
It’s honestly a beautiful city and us Estonians used to have cruises to Petersburg much like there are cruises to Stockholm. I never went because I don’t speak Russian and I’ve been uneasy about visiting the country under its’ current regime, but if things change for the better, I’m tempted to go.
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1672614474967322624?s=20
graphic showing the progress of Prigozhin’s rebellion. Little bright spots mark district centers where evidence of fighting has been observed, and big bright spots mark cities where explosions have been heard. Regions where Wagner column has been spotted marked in purple
tl;dr: A counter-terrorist operation has been launched in several Russian regions, as well as in Moscow as preparations are being made for the capital’s siege by the Wagner Group forces that rebelled against Russia’s top military command - Ukraine’s defense intelligence,
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3727239-prigozhins-mutiny-in-russia-intelligence-update.html
deleted by creator
2021: “The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in the world.”
2022: “The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Ukraine.”
2023: “The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Russia.”
Swan Lake
If Moscow stations start playing this, it’s a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we’d see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don’t think he’ll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we’ll have a pretty good idea who’s left standing.
This is the second collapse of a nuclear power in 30~ years
This ones different because we don’t have a “smooth” transition of power to another government. This is the total collapse of Putin’s autocratic government which he set up over 20 years of ruling. We had randos on twitter talk about how Wagner forces were talking over nukes. During the soviet collapse, Russia’s military had complete control of it’s nuclear arsenal. We get front row seats to the collapse, an analogy would be the train wreak in East Palestine whereas the World is the town and the train is Russia.
Hasn’t it been stated it’s not a coup?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877
I don’t know what the difference between that and a march for justice are though.
It’s down to branding. Prigozhin is framing this as a fight against the military leaders who have deceived Putin and caused him to make mistakes, but he does not blame Putin himself and is leaving room for Putin to change sides.
That framing aside, this is still a coup with the goal of overthrowing gov’t leadership by force.
“This is not a coup” is roughly akin to “I’m not a Nazi” … you’ve brought up something outside daily norms to such an extent that you’re engaging in framing.
I get that. What I’m wondering if there have been any further developments or changes to that. Even hints to the contrary.
If things did escelate or spiral and there was no word as to directions or aspirations I feel like it could be a massive confusing fumble
Speculation is pointless; all one can do is keep up via nonsensationalized channels.
This is going to be one of those days I miss being in a newsroom.
It doesn’t even really matter what Prigozhin intended at this point. Putin has made it clear he’s treating this as a coup attempt, so Prigozhin has to either pull off a successful coup or die.
It’s all word play, total information control and fog of war; by not attacking Putin directly, they avoid upsetting the Russians that still have total confidence in Putin and maintain that possibility that Wagner could still end up in alliance with Putin anyway, like with Chechens.
Attacking the military talking-heads however, doesn’t risk anything, most Russians don’t really trust the entire regime anyway, just Putin.
Once Wagner have more and more control of Russia, they can just go after Putin.
This is all speculation on my part tho.
If it’s not a coup, it’s going to get Prigizhin killed and Wagner disbanded. So I can’t see it as much of anything else.
I doubt Wagner will be disbanded, they’ll be absorbed or forced right into the military.
People attempting coups have historically called them noncoups.
Historically, there’s also been a lot of nincomcoups that ended rather abruptly.
Also, if Prigozhin wins, Putin will probably end up being “killed by traitors”, but Prigozhin will vow to avenge him and bring all traitors to justice.
The other historical trend seems to be finding out who funded or influenced it after the attempt. I’m curious to see how it pans out
Wait, how could we possibly have a good idea TODAY? Aren’t they in Rustov, almost 1000 km from Moscow?
They’ve already taken Voronezh as well, some 500km from Moscow and have been reported to be advancing through the Lipetsk province, 350km south of Moscow.
Without opposition, that’s a day of travel.
@muddybulldog
Yeah if they just pickup Russian soldiers on the way without any trouble, it’ll be very fast
@exscape
I see reports of them arriving at Lipetsk (430km from Moscow) just now, after conquering Voronezj (500km from Moscow) about 6 hours ago.
Putin has already fled Moscow to another province and some top leadership have fled to Turkey. They are moving FAST into Moscow.
They’re already moving fast toward Moscow. They’re saying they’re in Voronezh already but fog of war means we don’t know for sure for a while.
They’re taking over Rustov because of a huge military supply there.
There are reports of gunfire at half-way between Rostov and Moscow already. But yeah, I don’t think they will manage to reach close to Moscow within a day https://nitter.net/igorsushko/status/1672434377425551361#m
Nobody in their way to stop them, Russian’s army is in Ukraine. If they continue like this Moscow will be put under siege by tomorrow.
Civil war broke out, some dude close to Putin offended Putin and Putin bombed his friend, friend didn’t like and started a coupe, civil joined in and thus making it a civil war. Putin friends is a military dude that still want to invade Ukraina after the civil war.
This is what my understanding is, someone please correct me.
We need a remind me bot. I’ve no clue other than Putin fled Moscow and they guy controlling a bunch of mercenaries is coming for him. I’ll look back at this post later to see what the consensus is and if they supply links.
I think I read Wagner forces number about 25,000? Can anyone contextualize how big a headache this will be for Russia?
“CNN has tracked Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Ukraine and Syria. Over the years they have developed a particularly gruesome reputation and have been linked to various human rights abuses.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/23/europe/wagner-prigozhin-criminal-case-explainer-intl/index.html
It sounds like Prigohzin could be a big headache for Putin.
If he deposes Putin he could be a big headache for us all. There are already reports of Wagner seizing nuclear weapons facilities in Russia.
@ConstableJelly @alyaza Well, considering how many tank(s?) were at Putin’s Victory Day parade, I think we have our answer. 😁
Considering that they needed Wagner to take over many areas in Ukraine and their military couldn’t do it, it’ll be a huge headache.
It also destroys Putin’s reputation of being in full charge. Think about the impact on the public, Putin has total informational control over Russia and this fucks him over.
Remember, they used to say that Wagner’s head would be cut off quickly if they ever “think” of going against Putin and there you go, it’s all BS.
I’m skeptical that this will affect his reputation, it’s just too easy to spin this for a propaganda-captive population so deep in the hole. But it would be great if it did.
The tactical impact seems more promising to me, but I’m also woefully uninformed so what do I know lol.
Add to that a brigade (2,000-8,000) of Russian special forces that defected. Those guys are probably worth 2-3 national guardsman.
Edit: allegedly
Question is, is it true?
Hard to tell. What is abundantly clear is that they are meeting little to no resistance. Otherwise they would have never gotten this far. Whether troops really are joining them I can’t confirm. It’s all coming in very rapidly from sources I have no experience with.
I’m going to update my previous comment to add “allegedly.”
There have been a bunch of mixed reports, I think it’s tough to say exactly what’s true. I saw one person suggesting that given Wagner’s numbers in Africa it’s likely there’s really only half that number there. But there have also been reports of Russian military and intelligence personnel switched to support Wagner.
As someone else said, I think for most people it’s just a matter of wait and see what shakes out.
Interesting. So sounds like this could land anywhere from fizzling out to full-on coup, depending on still-unknown variables like the true state of Putin’s support within his own ranks.
Wagnerians in Lipetsk, avout 300 km from Moscow
https://canada.unofficialbird.com/nexta_tv/status/1672602398915809282#m
https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1672616215792025601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1672616215792025601%7Ctwgr%5E023cb34ae0c9f7d902a837a61ccf19059ce74aa6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_68865d04-129e-11ee-975c-620d03dd6fa5%2F0
Kadyrov’s Chechens are being pulled out of Donbas to fortify Rostov.
source : https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes/status/1672615799620612099
Whose side is Kadyrov on? Or is he his own side?
They’re on their own side, they’re mercs and loyal to money, just like Wagner. Right now, they’re taking Putin’s money.
However, as soon as Putin’s down or out of money, they’ll switch sides easily.
Keep in mind that Chechens were at some point at war with Putin as well and Putin won that one. Kadyrov’s an ally of Putin at this point.
Might be a good time for Ukraine to lob a few care packages his way /s
Rumors on telegram that Shoigu has been detained.
https://hachyderm.io/@mariyadelano/110600510097838790