☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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The thing is that the current regime in Ukraine doesn’t have much support hence why they cancelled elections. It’s also worth noting that most people in Ukraine didn’t really want to have a war with Russia. Zelensky originally ran on a platform of peace and implementing Minsk.
Guerrilla warfare requires support from general public who provide supplies for the partisans, hide them, and so on. I don’t see that being the case in Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that Russia managed to avoid this scenario in Chechnya already. In fact, Chechens are now fighting along side Russia in Ukraine. Looking at slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 is illustrative. First, here’s the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here’s how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided roughly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
What I expect will happen is that most people in eastern and central Ukraine will just accept being part of Russia going forward. Those who felt strongly against this either fled the country or died fighting because they were motivated to fight. Also worth noting that once it becomes clear that the war is lost there’s going to be a huge backlash against the west, since lack of western support will be blamed for it by the hardliners. A lot of weapons that the west flooded into Ukraine disappeared. In fact, CBS did a study at one point that found that only just “30-40%” of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. There’s no doubt that a lot of these weapons are now in the hands of various far right groups across Europe at this point. Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It’s entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
Russia doesn’t need to capture western Ukraine, and I think it’s highly unlikely they would try to do that. A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses. Then it will take over most of Ukraine, dictate terms to whatever rump state is left in western Ukraine.
There is no scenario where Ukraine is going to be in a position of any strength here. The longer the war continues the more manpower Ukraine loses and ultimately the worse the terms are going to be in the end.
It’s also worth mentioning that whatever is left of west Ukraine will become entirely dependent on the west creating a huge economic drain on Europe at the threat of a huge refugee crisis if this state collapses. This is a nightmare scenario for Europe where the economy is already going into a recession.
USA literally published a paper on how they want to goad Russia into a war in Ukraine with the goal of extending Russia https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
USA ran a coup in Ukraine that overthrew a democratically elected government to put a far right regime in place that then committed atrocities against people of Donbas since 2014. I lovew how you ignore all that since it doesn’t fit your infantile narrative.
Ditto. A country which is so afraid of freedoms and rights can’t be trusted. Any reasonable country allows journalists to live.
I never said I trust the US regime or their media.
It matters a whole lot actually because this a proxy war between NATO and Russia. NATO is just as responsible for what’s happening, and in fact we now know that it was the west that intervened to stop negotiations in Istanbul that could’ve stopped the war back in 2022. Bleating about Russian propaganda isn’t going to change the facts of the situation.
What I recite is what mainstream western media openly says now, and if you claim that’s Russian propaganda then you’re exposing yourself as a troll.
Comparing convicts to nabbing people off the street exposes your intellectual dishonesty. However, the fact is that Russia isn’t even doing that anymore. They literally have people volunteering. You should follow your own advice and stop projecting. Everything I’ve been saying about this conflict for the past two years is becoming increasingly obviously true. Meanwhile, people who have been peddling western propaganda are looking like clowns at this point. The fact that you lack any capacity for self reflection is just amazing.
Maybe ask yourself how is it that Russia isn’t collapsing like you were promised, that Russian economy is outperforming the west, that Russian army is becoming stronger than NATO. This all being openly discussed by the same western media that said all those things would happen. Yet, here you are bleating about Russian propaganda.
people who actually have a clue seem to disagree with you champ https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
Same goes the other way around, and given that Russia is in a stronger position than the west, that’s the scenario we should really be talking about. What happens when NATO gets shredded by Russia the same way their Ukrainian proxy. Will NATO just pack up and go home or escalate to use of nuclear weapons. Incidentally, US intentionally keeps an open posture on this.
Western backed regime in Ukraine is literally kidnapping people off the streets and forcing them into fighting. Even mainstream western media admits this https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html
All the west has accomplished so far is to ensure that more Ukraine is destroyed, and it’s obvious to anybody with a functioning brain that there is no chance of Ukraine winning at this point. The best chance Ukraine had was last summer during the fabled offensive that failed miserably. Ukraine is never going to be in as good position going forward. So the actual choice is to ensure more people keep dying or to negotiate with Russia. Incredible that after two years westerners still can’t get this through their skulls.
Yes, let’s look at the conditions inside Russia. The economy is growing faster than the G7, and Russia is outproducing the west 3x in terms of stuff like artillery shells. Meanwhile, there is zero evidence that Ukrainian attacks on refineries have actually achieved anything. Last I checked Russian oil exports are still going strong.
There’s also zero actual evidence for the claims of meatwave tactics, this is just the racist asiatic hordes narrative westerners keep clinging to.
And not sure how Russian border guards repelling attacks at the border is misuse of border guards in your mind.
Maybe read and try to learn from what people with a clue have to say, as explained by an actual professional in the article I linked instead of clinging to your delusional fantasies.
If the US passes aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually. You don’t have to take my word for it either https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
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I’m imagine people in tech are inherently over-represented on niche social platforms. Although, I do find that lemmy tends to have a political aspect to it as well that makes it attractive to people who might not care about stuff like open source.